Construction of ecological security patterns and evaluation of connectivity stability under multi-scenario simulation: A case study in desert–oasis area of the Yellow River Basin, China

Abstract

Abstract Land use change often has enormous impacts on ecosystem sustainability, and ecological security pattern (ESP) can improve ecological quality through spatial planning. Thus, this study explored a multi-scenario ESPs framework by coupling future land use simulation (FLUS) and minimum cumulative resistance (MCR) for urban agglomerations along the Yellow River Basin in Ningxia, simulated land use change in 2035 under four development scenarios, identified ecological security networks, and assessed the stability of network connectivity in each scenario. The results showed that the areas of ecological sources under the natural development scenario (NDS), economic development scenario (EDS), food security scenario (FSS), and ecological protection scenario (EPS) were 834.82 km2, 715.46 km2, 785.56 km2, and 1091.43 km2, respectively. The overall connectivity (OG) values were 0.351, 0.466, 0.334, and 0.520, respectively. Under the EPS, the construction of ESPs has the largest area of ecological land use and the most stable network structure, which can not only effectively protect natural habitats but also reduce the cost of construction in reality. This study provides a valuable method for identifying ESPs that can respond to diversity and uncertainty for future development and can help decision makers improve the ecological quality of the study area considering different scales and development scenarios.