Fracture-induced Electromagnetic radiation (FEMR) predicting the Syrian-Turkey earthquake (Mw-6.3) on 20.2.2023: An insight on the Dead Sea transform activity

Abstract

Abstract Observations of fracture-induced electromagnetic radiation (FEMR) were conducted along the Dead Sea Transform (DST) from Sodom to Jericho, coinciding with a magnitude (Mw) 6.3 aftershock earthquake (EQ) in the Turkey-Syrian region on February 20, 2023. The FEMR parameters ("hits," Benioff strain release, frequency, rise-time, energy) and associated crack dimensions were analyzed, focusing on trends leading up to the EQ. This study investigated the Benioff Strain plot and other parameters in three consecutive earthquake nucleation stages leading to the catastrophe. The first stage showed increased FEMR hits and frequency, decreased rise time (T'), and crack dimensions. In the second stage, FEMR hits and crack width decreased while other parameters continued to rise, accumulating the second-highest energy, likely due to high-stress drop. The third stage exhibited steadily increasing FEMR hits and energy and a notable increase in crack dimensions, suggesting an imminent macro failure event. The cyclic trend in FEMR hits indicates alternating periods of high activity and silence, potentially linked to stress changes during crack propagation. Taken shortly before the earthquake, these measurements offer valuable insights into how FEMR parameters vary before seismic events, bridging the gap between lab-scale studies of rock collapses under stress and large-scale failure phenomena.