Abstract
This research investigates cocoa (Thebroma cacao) supply from the global primary producers. The research examines long-term precipitation and vegetation index data to understand the reasons for change in production that have impacted the global supply of cocoa. This analysis aims to inform strategic decisions for countries like the UK, which relies on the supply of many sub-tropical and tropical crop products. The need for climate-smart production in Côte d'Ivoire is a priority for confectionery and chocolate manufacturers in the UK. The research reported uses long-term precipitation and vegetation index data to assess why and how production changes have changed global supply and highlights that the initial impacts of climate change for food supply may well be seen first for luxury products such as chocolate. These are products that are supplied for the value of taste and food experience. The global food system depends on these ingredients from tropical and subtropical regions, where environmental degradation is being acutely impacted by climate change, political disruption, and financial pressures placed on producers. This research highlights these products needing climate-smart farming to improve resilience in response to climate change.