Analysis of risk factors of type 2 diabetes mellitus patients complicated with hypertension and establishment of prediction model

Abstract

Abstract Purpose To analyze the risk factors of adult patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus complicated with hypertension in Jiangsu province, and establish an individualized risk prediction model of hypertension. Methods We analyzed 485 newly diagnosed patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus from 2020 to 2021 in Lianshui County People's Hospital, Huai'an City, Jiangsu province, China. According to the ratio of 7:3, they were randomly divided into training group and validation group. After primary screening by univariate analysis, the predicted variables were determined by multivariate analysis. The nomogram model of hypertension was constructed and evaluated by receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC curve), calibration curve and decision curve analysis(DCA). Results This study investigated 485 people, and the prevalence of hypertension was 56.90%. Residential area, systolic blood pressure, family history of diabetes and uric acid are independent risk factors of hypertension among adults in Jiangsu province (P < 0.05). The area under ROC curve (AUC) of hypertension risk prediction model in training group and validation group were 0.7401 and 0.7392, respectively, and the calibration curves showed excellent consistency. DCA shows that the training group shows a great positive rate of return in the risk range of 13%~57% and 58%~100%. Conclusions The prediction model based on the related risk factors of hypertension among adult residents in Jiangsu province has excellent accuracy and clinical application value. It can provide a more intuitive way to assess the risk of diabetic patients with hypertension, and has guiding significance for the prevention and treatment of hypertension.