Spatio-temporal variability of sugarcane yield based on edaphoclimatic factors in the central region of Brazil

Abstract

Abstract Brazil is the main producer of sugarcane in the world; however, it occupies the 24th position in the global ranking in terms of average yield, demonstrating gaps that may be associated with unfavorable edaphoclimatic conditions and/or lack of application of suitable technologies. Therefore, the aim of this study was to correlate the spatio-temporal variability of sugarcane yield with the edaphoclimatic conditions of the central region of Brazil. For this, 11 sugarcane-producing municipalities located in the states of Goiás, Mato Grosso, São Paulo and Minas Gerais were studied, based on historical data (47 years) of yield, climate and soil. To show the climatic effects on yield (Yr), technological trends (YrNT) were removed from the adjustment of a simple linear regression, and a cluster analysis was performed. Four groups of Yr and YrNT were formed, in which group 1 had the highest average (77 Mg ha− 1) and group 4 the lowest average (47 Mg ha− 1), with a yield-gap around of 10.2 Mg ha− 1. Municipalities classified as having the highest Yr average are in groups 3 and 4 for climate and 2 and 3 for soils. Climate group 3 considering YrNT resulted in higher occurrences (≈ 26% of years) of anomalies lower than 1.0 standard deviation (σ), showing that climatic conditions associated with the lack of adequate technologies in production processes can cause losses in crop yield. It is recommended that sugarcane Yr should be evaluated considering cycles and harvest before performing the YrNT, for a better inference of crop variability.