Simple mathematical model for predicting COVID-19 outbreaks in Japan based on epidemic waves with a cyclical trend

Abstract

Abstract Background Several models have been used to predict outbreaks during the COVID-19 pandemic, with limited success. We developed a simple mathematical model to accurately predict future epidemic waves. Methods We used data from the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare - Japan for newly confirmed COVID-19 cases. COVID-19 case data were summarized as weekly data; then, epidemic waves were visualized and identified. The periodicity of COVID-19 in each prefecture of Japan was confirmed using time-series analysis and the autocorrelation coefficient, which was used to investigate the longer-term pattern of COVID-19 cases. Outcomes using the autocorrelation coefficient were visualized via a correlogram to capture the periodicity of the data. An algorithm for a simple prediction model of the seventh COVID-19 wave in Japan comprised three steps. Step 1: machine learning techniques was used to depict the regression lines for each epidemic wave, denoted the “rising trend line”; Step 2: an exponential function with good fit was identified from data of rising straight lines up to the sixth wave and the timing of the rise of the seventh wave and speed of its spread were calculated; Step 3: a logistic function was created using the values calculated in Step 2 as coefficients to predict the seventh wave. The accuracy of the model in predicting the seventh wave was confirmed using data up to the sixth wave. Results Up to March 31, 2023, the correlation coefficient value was approximately 0.5, indicating significant periodicity. The spread of COVID-19 in Japan was repeated in a cycle of approximately 140 days. In the predicted seventh wave, although the starting time and peak time of the epidemic were slightly behind, our developed prediction model had a fairly high degree of accuracy. Conclusion Our newly developed prediction model based on the rising trend line could predict COVID-19 outbreaks up to a few months in advance with high accuracy. The findings of the present study warrant further investigation regarding application to emerging infectious diseases other than COVID-19 when an epidemic wave has high periodicity.