Affiliation:
1. Salahaddin University-Erbil
Abstract
Abstract
The Non-homogeneous Poisson Process, with time dependent intensity functions, is commonly used to model the scenarios of counting the number of events that appear to take place in a given time interval. The identification of the process relies on the functional form for the intensity function, which can be difficult to determine. In this paper, a Non-Homogenous Poisson Process model is proposed to predict the intensity function for the number of earthquake occurrences in Iraq; the constructed model allows anticipating the number of earthquakes occur at any time interval with a specific time length. Then, to estimate the model parameters, the data obtained from the annual reports of the Iraqi Meteorological Organization and Seismology (IMOS) from January, 1st 2018 to May, 1st 2023 is used. Moreover, a simulation study is conducted and a new algorithm is introduced to show the performance and the applicability of the proposed model.
Publisher
Research Square Platform LLC
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