A geological event tree on volcanic islands:case study of the Galápagos islands

Author:

Mulas Maurizio1ORCID,Larreta Erwin2,Menoscal Melanie3,Bravo Gianella3,Rosado Victoria3,Capa Diego3,Garces Daniel3

Affiliation:

1. Escuela Superior Politécnica del Litoral, ESPOL.

2. Universidad Tecnica de Manabi

3. ESPOL: Escuela Superior Politecnica del Litoral

Abstract

Abstract

The Galápagos Islands face recurrent geological hazards such as volcanic eruptions, flooding, and seismic activity due to their location in the Pacific Ring of Fire. Due to climate change, the frequency and intensity of natural events have increased in recent years, triggering cascading multi-hazard effects that threaten the development of the population and wildlife of the islands. Therefore, it is necessary to solve its management by studying the relationship of its Socio-Ecological System (SES) with its geological component. To effectively address this problem, it is essential to propose a methodological design based on historical records of hazards that have affected the archipelago, obtaining a reference diagram for decision-making in the face of multi-hazard events and their possible environmental and socio-ecological effects. The methodology is planned in different phases: i) description of the SSE and its ecosystem services; ii) collection of historical data on events that have affected the island; iii) identification of the hazards triggered by a main event; iv) elaboration of an "event tree" type diagram; v) determination of environmental and socio-ecological affectations. The present work seeks to obtain a multi-hazard diagram for active and inactive volcanic islands, considering their environmental parameters and socio-ecological hazards. The importance of this analysis is to provide a tool to entities such as municipalities, Red Cross and Geological Services that allows them to evaluate the existing preventive measures against possible hazards, identifying their cascading effects and minimizing the response time in emerging situations.

Publisher

Springer Science and Business Media LLC

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