Develop a Clinical Scoring Model Based on Noninvasive Bioindicators to Predict Fibrosis Risk in Nonobese Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Patients

Abstract

AbstractBACKGROUND:The presence of fibrosis is the main cause of the progression of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). Our study aims to develop a simple clinical scoring system and nomogram for evaluating fibrosis in non-obese NAFLD patients.METHODS:This retrospective study included 99 non-obese NAFLD patients who underwent liver biopsy in China. The clinical scoring system and nomogram were used to predict the disease progression of NAFLD.RESULTS:Of the 99 non-obese patients with NAFLD, 41 (41.1%) were fibrosis. On multivariate logistic regression analysis, age, alanine aminotransferase(AST), platelet(PLT) and red blood cell (RBC) showed significant association with fibrosis (all P＜0.05). The area under curves (AUC) of the prediction model of fibrosis for non-obese patients established by the above four variables was 0.94 (95% confidence interval (CI):0.89-0.98). Moreover, the AUC of the further simplified clinical scoring model was 0.92 (95%CI 0.86-0.97). High risk group with score greater than or equal to 5, and low risk group with score less than or equal to 2. The nomogram had a good effect in evaluating the risk of fibrosis in non-obese NAFLD patients.CONCLUSION:A simple, easily calculated and non-invasive clinical score can reliably assess the presence of fibrosis in non-obese NAFLD patients. This scoring model complements the deficiency of the prediction system for disease progression in non-obese NAFLD patients, and brings good news for early identification and intervention of these patients.