Machine Learning-based Approach for Ex-post Assessment of Community Risk and Resilience Based on Coupled Human- infrastructure Systems Performance

Author:

Li Xiangpeng1,Mostafavi Ali1

Affiliation:

1. Texas A&M University

Abstract

Abstract

While current approaches primarily focus on anticipatory or predictive resilience assessments of natural events, there is a limitation in the literature of data-driven analyses for the ex-post evaluation of community risk and resilience, particularly using features related to the performance of coupled human-infrastructure systems. To address this gap, in this study we created a machine learning-based method for the ex-post assessment of community risk and resilience and their interplay based on features related to the coupled human-infrastructure systems performance. Utilizing feature groups related to population protective actions, infrastructure/building performance features, and recovery features, we examined the risk and resilience performance of communities in the context of the 2017 Hurricane Harvey in Harris County, Texas. These features related to the coupled human-infrastructure systems performance were processed using the K-means clustering method to classify census block groups into four distinct clusters then, based on feature analysis, these clusters were labeled and designated into four quadrants of risk-resilience archetypes. Finally, we analyzed the disparities in risk-resilience status of spatial areas across different clusters as well as different income groups. The findings unveil the risk-resilience status of spatial areas shaped by their coupled human-infrastructure systems performance and their interactions. The results also inform about features that contribute to high resilience in high-risk areas. For example, the results indicate that in high-risk areas, evacuation rates contributed to a greater resilience, while in low-risk areas, preparedness contributed to greater resilience. In addition, the findings reveal disparities in the risk and resilience status of spatial areas where low-income residents reside. The outcomes of this study provide researchers and practitioners with new data-driven and machine intelligence-based methods and insights to better evaluate the risk and resilience status of communities during a disaster to inform future plans and policies.

Publisher

Research Square Platform LLC

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