Future climate projection across Tanzania under CMIP6 with High-Resolution Regional Climate Model

Author:

MAGANG DAWIDO1,Ojara Moses2,Yunsheng Lou1,Philemon Henry1

Affiliation:

1. Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology

2. Uganda National Meteorological Authority, Directorate of Training and Research

Abstract

Abstract

Climate change is one of the most pressing challenges faced by developing countries due to lower adaptive capacity, with far- reaching impacts on agriculture. Adaptation is the fundamental option to reduce the impacts. Climate change projection for future with comparison to the past is investigated by focuses on utilization of outputs of high-resolution Regional Climate Models (RCMs) from the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment program (CORDEX-Africa) and Climate Change Knowledge Portal (CCKP) from the world Bank Group. Mid-century (2040–2060) projections of annually, monthly, and seasonal of rainfall, temperature (minimum, maximum) under two emissions scenarios. Mid-century is considered as a critical time for adaptation measures. The Shared Social-economic Pathways (SSPs): SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 under baseline period of (1991–2020) simulations. The future climate 2040–2060, departure determined with reference period 1995–2014 climate conditions. From the analysis, the result reveal that, across the country historical there’s significantly increase in temperature (minimum, maximum) trend. However, rainfall increased by + 63.2% not significantly. Projected 2040–2060 shows that, throughout the country will experience the increase of the temperature in the anomaly range from 1.4 ºC to 2.8 ºC under SSP5-8.5 emission scenario. Projected rainfall indicates that will be increased in the anomaly range from + 0.6% to + 6.3% and from + 5.2% to + 14.4% under both emissions scenarios.

Publisher

Research Square Platform LLC

Reference54 articles.

1. P. Rowhani, D. B. Lobell, M. Linderman, and N. Raman Kutty, Climate variability and crop production in Tanzania, Agric for Meteorol, vol. 151, no. 4, pp. 449–460. (2011). doi: 10.1016/j.agrformet.2010.12.002.

2. The state of food and agriculture. (2016). Climate change, agriculture and food security.

3. C. E. Arce and J. Caballero, Agriculture global practice technical Assistance paper Tanzania Agricultural sector risk Assessment World Bank group report number 94883-tZ. (2015).

4. Global Agricultural Production: Resilience to Climate Change;Ahmed M;Springer International Publishing.,2023

5. T. Hasegawa et al., A global dataset for the projected impacts of climate change on four major crops, Sci Data, vol. 9, no. 1. (2022). doi: 10.1038/s41597-022-01150-7.

同舟云学术

1.学者识别学者识别

2.学术分析学术分析

3.人才评估人才评估

"同舟云学术"是以全球学者为主线,采集、加工和组织学术论文而形成的新型学术文献查询和分析系统,可以对全球学者进行文献检索和人才价值评估。用户可以通过关注某些学科领域的顶尖人物而持续追踪该领域的学科进展和研究前沿。经过近期的数据扩容,当前同舟云学术共收录了国内外主流学术期刊6万余种,收集的期刊论文及会议论文总量共计约1.5亿篇,并以每天添加12000余篇中外论文的速度递增。我们也可以为用户提供个性化、定制化的学者数据。欢迎来电咨询!咨询电话:010-8811{复制后删除}0370

www.globalauthorid.com

TOP

Copyright © 2019-2024 北京同舟云网络信息技术有限公司
京公网安备11010802033243号  京ICP备18003416号-3