Long-term Rainfall Trends in South West Asia - Arabian Peninsula

Abstract

Abstract In this study, rainfall data from 19 stations in Saudi Arabia (SA) for the period 1985–2019 was utilized to investigate interannual, monthly, and seasonal rainfall variations and trends. The magnitudes of these trends were characterized and tested using Mann–Kendall (MK) rank statistics at different significance levels. During this study period, the mean rainfall in SA showed a slight and significant decreasing trend by about 2 mm/35 years. Investigation of seasonal trends of rainfall revealed that Winter and Spring rainfall decreased significantly by 2.7 mm/35 years and 5.4 mm//35 years respectively. Three months showed very slight significant decreasing trends of rainfall. These were the months of February, March and April. Mann-Kendall analyses were carried out to investigate the annual trends of rainfall during three sub-periods, i.e., 1985–1996, 1997–2008, and 2009–2019. The results revealed that while rainfall increased by 5.3 mm/12 years and 7.8 mm/11 years for the first and the third periods respectively, it decreased by about 11 mm/12 years during the second period. While trends of rainfall in Saudi Arabia are affected by large scale circulations and local factors, the effect of extraterrestrial factors, such as solar activity and its consequent effects on the climate may, additionally, play a potential role in affecting the pattern of rainfall in Saudi Arabia.