Individual and spatial determinants of mortality during the Covid-19 pandemic: The case of Belgium in 2020

Abstract

Abstract Context. The year 2020 was marked by the Covid-19 pandemic. In Belgium, it led to a doubling in deaths, mainly grouped into two periods. This article aims to compare the relative importance of predictors and individual and spatial determinants of mortality during these two waves to an equivalent non-pandemic period and to identify whether and to what extent the pandemic has altered the sociodemographic patterns of conventional mortality. Methods. The analyses relate to all-cause mortality during the two waves of Covid-19 and their equivalent in 2019. They are based on matching individual and exhaustive data from the Belgian National Register with tax and population census data. A multi-level approach was adopted combining individual and spatial determinants. Results. Mortality patterns during the pandemic are very similar to those observed outside the pandemic. As in 2019, age, sex, and household composition significantly determine the individual risk of dying, with a higher risk of death among the oldest people, men, and residents of collective households. However, their risk of death increases during the Covid period, especially in the 65–79 age group. Spatial information is no more significant in 2020 than in 2019. However, a higher risk of death is observed when the local excess mortality index or the proportions of isolated or disadvantaged people increase. Conclusions. While the Covid pandemic did not fundamentally alter conventional mortality patterns, it did amplify some of the pre-existing differences in mortality.