Modified Niche Modelling for Niche Specific Conservation and Ecorestoration Planning of Threatened Tree Species: A Case Study on Four Goniothalamus Species in the Western Ghats

Abstract

Abstract The species distribution based on Maximum Entropy using 19 bioclimatic variables has been considered better for prediction of potential habitat of species. Critiques suggested incorporation of more parameters especially of the vegetation and terrain, as hierarchical SDM for more precise predication. A modified niche model incorporating WorldClim bioclimatic spatial data and more factors of terrain, landuse, vegetation, and geographical zonation standardised for the Western Ghats mountain part of the Western Ghats-Sri Lanka biodiversity hotspot was experimented here with four threatened and endemic trees of the genus Goniothalamus (Annonaceae). This brought more precise predictions, with an average predicted potential area of 2.25 km2, compared to 16.5 km2 in normal niche modelling. The differential prediction pattern obtained here for congeneric taxa that share similar vegetation and habits endemic to this tropical monsoonal mountain suggests niche modelling as the most simple and niche-specific method to predict potential areas of tree species, where the inclusion of more special parameters as a modified niche model gives more precision considering both the Grinnellian and Eltonian niche factors. This could be useful in site-specific conservation and ecorestoration planning for threatened trees.