Complexity-driven Risk Decision Framework for Cost Overrun using Fuzzy-Bayesian Network

Abstract

Abstract This study adheres to find important complexity-risk interdependent causes of cost overrun in infrastructure transport projects rather considering an independent state of project risk. Aiming for addressing cost overrun problem to facilitate decision-makers, a hierarchical breakdown structure of complex elements and complexity-driven risk factors at different levels of severity is conceptualized along with their interdependency network of key relationships. In this work, an integrated approach of fuzzy logic with the Bayesian belief network is employed for cost-risk assessment while assuming linguistic scales of likelihood and consequences parameters. The simulated results of cost-risk decision framework imply that poor design issues, increase in material prices and delay in relocating facilities show higher complexity-risk dependency and increase the risk of cost overrun in complex projects. This study contributes to the body of knowledge by providing a practical hybrid risk decision framework to identify and evaluate the key complexity-risk interdependencies in underline relations to the cost overrun problem in construction.