Integrating Marketing Channels into Quantile Transformation and Bayesian Optimization of Ensemble Kernels for Sales Prediction with Gaussian Process Models

Abstract

This study introduces an innovative Gaussian Process (GP) model utilizing an ensemble kernel that integrates Radial Basis Function (RBF), Rational Quadratic, and Matérn kernels for product sales forecasting. By applying Bayesian optimization, we efficiently find the optimal weights for each kernel, enhancing the model’s ability to handle complex sales data patterns. Our approach significantly outperforms traditional GP models, achieving a notable 98% accuracy and superior performance across key metrics including Mean Squared Error (MSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE), and Coefficient of Determination (R²). This advancement underscores the effectiveness of ensemble kernels and Bayesian optimization in improving predictive accuracy, offering profound implications for machine learning applications in sales forecasting.