A system dynamic modelling and analytical framework for imported dengue outbreak surveillance and risk mapping

Abstract

Abstract Mathematical models have been used to understand complex, multi-faceted dengue transmission dynamics, but a gap persists between research and actionable public health tools for decision-making. We developed a plug-and-play system dynamics framework combining temperature-dependent vector population, transmission parameters, and epidemiological interactions that allows for testing multiple hypotheses and data availability scenarios. Spain is an at-risk country of imported dengue outbreaks, so we explored vector population and outbreak risk maps for the 26 provinces with known presence of A. Albopictus. Under our assumptions, only 15 provinces can sustain annual vector population cycles, mainly along the Mediterranean coast. Málaga and Almería, in the south, face the highest risk with outbreak beginning in spring with low vector density. Risk shifts to the summer in east coastal provinces, while some inner regions experience residual risks. Together, our framework depicts spatiotemporal risk profiles and can effectively assist evidence-based public health planning in various settings and contexts.