Characterization of Heatwave Patterns and Its Long-run Predictions Using CMIP6 Model in Western and North-Western Climatic Zones of Bangladesh

Abstract

Globally, the hazards related to climate change effect such as tropical cyclones, storm surges, coastal flooding, river erosion, floods, droughts, heatwave, cold wave etc. are burning challenge that drastically effects people’s food security, health, ecosystems and society as a whole. In recent decade, rising trend of unusually prolong high temperature or heatwave episode is a burning concern. Present study area address the heatwave patterns in western climatic zone (E), and north-western climatic zone (D) in the north-western part of Bangladesh. Using historical maximum temperature (T_MAX) data during the period of 1996-2014, and model-projected T_MAX data (2015- 2022) have collected. Moreover, two shared socio-economic tools such as SSP_245 and SSP_585 have used in present study along with projected data for the years of 2024–2050. The study uses heatwave alerts from the Bangladesh Meteorological Department (BMD) to classify heatwave days into four categories: mild, moderate, severe, and extreme. To improve accuracy, four general circulation models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) have assessed following bias correction, and merged using an ensemble technique. The median has used to reduce extreme value sensitivity. According to the BMD criteria, the results show that severe and exceptional hot days have occurred often in recent years. This tendency could continue into the future, putting a sizable population at risk. The heatwave days are significantly more common under SSP_585 than they are under SSP_245, demonstrating the straightforward influence of human activity on heatwave regularity. To lessen the negative effects of heatwaves, fair and practical measures for preparing for and responding to them should be developed, and will be facilitated by this thorough analysis of heatwave projections. The results of present study highlight the urgency of taking immediate action to improve heat wave readiness. These study results are expected to enhance the accomplishment of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDG 3, SDG 11, and SDG 13) by guiding proactive steps to mitigate the consequences of severe heat wave days.