Toward neutral carbon integrated production y silvopastoral systems: an Uruguayan study case modeled using agent-based technique

Abstract

Abstract The aim of this study was to assess management practices, productivity, and greenhouse gas outcomes using multi-agent modeling of a livestock system incorporating agroforestry modules. The agent-based model simulates the dynamics of animal growth, forage, and tree vegetation in several scenarios. Simulation results were evaluated over 10-year periods using a case study. Rotational grazing and forestry presence in grazing paddocks induce changes in system-wide interactions and productivity. That combined production allows for adjusting animal stocking rates and achieving a balance between forage availability and cattle demand, considering also tree-cattle interactions. Through stocking rate management, a balance between forage supply and demand can be achieved, with an improvement in net greenhouse gas reduction as livestock weight gain increases. In our study case, carbon-neutral beef production is achieved with a ratio of 380 steers at 606 ha grazing area with 13% forested surface. Estimated greenhouse gas emission intensity exhibits an inverse exponential relationship with weight gain. The agent-based modeling is a valuable tool for understanding the complexity of these systems, generating emergent properties. The study underscores the importance of implementing sustainable livestock practices and integrating agroforestry systems as a mitigation strategy.