Prediction of road traffic fatalities in the six most populous provinces of Iran, 2015-2016

Abstract

Abstract Background Prevention of Road traffic deaths as a critical public health issue requires coordinated efforts. We aimed to determine influential factors related to traffic safety in Iran as a low-income country (LIC). Methods In this study with a cross-sectional design, the information of 384,614 road traffic crashes recorded in Integrated Road Traffic Injury Registry System (IRTIRS) in a one-year period (March 2015 - March 2016) was analyzed. All registered crashes in Tehran, Isfan, Fras, Razavi Khorasan, Khuzestan and East Azerbaijan provinces, the six most populated provinces in Iran was included in this study. The data was in five main section namely crash scene, vehicle-, driver-, passenger- and pedestrian- related information. Multiple logistic regression applied through STATA software was used for data analysis. Results Over all the final model could identified thirty-two out of seventy-one different variables to be effective in road collisions. The following factors were found to increase the rate of fatal crashes at least by two time: be the most five significant in predicting fatal outcome in road traffic crashes: presence of passenger, unlicensed driving, illegal driving maneuver, head-on collision, crashes in suburban areas, occurrence of multiple causes for collision, vehicles with not personal-regional plaques, presence of pedestrians, drivers with low-income jobs, driver misconduct, roads with double solid lines, non-residential areas, multiple road defects. Conclusion This study reveals that driving behavior, infrastructure design and geometric road factors must be considered to avoid fatal crashes. Our results provide support for compulsory interventions in these areas.