Risk factor analysis and a new prediction model of venous thromboembolism after pancreaticoduodenectomy

Abstract

Abstract Aim The present study aimed to identify risk factors for venous thromboembolism (VTE) after pancreaticoduodenectomy (PD) and to develop and externally validate a predictive model for the risk of venous thrombosis. Methods We retrospectively collected data from 352 patients who visited our hospital to undergo PD from January 2018 to March 2022. The number of patients recruited was divided in an 8:2 ratio by using the random split method, with 80% of the patients serving as the training set and 20% as the validation set. The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression model was used to optimize feature selection for the VTE risk model. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to construct a prediction model by incorporating the features selected in the LASSO model. C-index, receiver operating characteristic curve, calibration plot, and decision curve were used to assess the accuracy of the model, to calibrate the model, and to determine the clinical usefulness of the model. Finally, we evaluated the prediction model for external validation. Results The predictors included in the prediction nomogram were sex, age, gastrointestinal symptoms, hypertension, diabetes, operative method, intraoperative bleeding, blood transfusion, neutrophil count, prothrombin time (PT), activated partial thromboplastin time (APTT), aspartate aminotransferase (AST)/alanine aminotransferase (ALT) ratio (AST/ALT), and total bilirubin (TBIL). The model showed good discrimination with a C-index of 0.827, had good consistency based on the calibration curve, and had an area under the ROC curve value of 0.822(P < 0.001, 95%confidence interval:0.761–0.882). A high C-index value of 0.894 was reached in external validation. Decision curve analysis showed that the VTE nomogram was clinically useful when intervention was decided at the VTE possibility threshold of 10%. Conclusion The novel model developed in this study is highly targeted and enables personalized assessment of VTE occurrence in patients who undergo PD. The predictors are easily accessible and facilitate the assessment of patients by clinical practitioners.