Acceleration of U.S. Southeast and Gulf Coast Sea-Level Rise Amplified by Internal Climate Variability-Reference-Cited by-同舟云学术

Acceleration of U.S. Southeast and Gulf Coast Sea-Level Rise Amplified by Internal Climate Variability

Published:2022-09-28 Issue: Volume: Page:
ISSN:
Container-title:
language:
Short-container-title:

Author:

Dangendorf Sönke¹^ORCID,Hendricks Noah²,Sun Qiang¹,Klinck John²^ORCID,Ezer Tal^ORCID,Frederikse Thomas³^ORCID,Calafat Francisco⁴^ORCID,Wahl Thomas⁵^ORCID,Tornqvist Torbjorn¹^ORCID

Affiliation:

1. Tulane University

2. Old Dominion University

3. Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology

4. National Oceanography Centre

5. University of Central Florida, USA

Abstract

Abstract While there is evidence for an acceleration in global mean sea-level (MSL) since the 1960s, its detection at local levels has been hampered by the considerable influence of natural variability on the rate of MSL change. Here we report an MSL acceleration in tide gauge records along the U.S. Southeast and Gulf coasts that has led to rates (>10 mmyr-1 since 2000) that are unprecedented in at least 120 years. We show that this acceleration is primarily induced by an ocean dynamic signal exceeding the externally forced response from historical climate model simulations. However, when the simulated forced response is removed from observations, the residuals are neither historically unprecedented nor inconsistent with unforced variability in simulations. Furthermore, a large fraction of the residuals can be explained by wind-driven Rossby waves in the tropical North Atlantic. This indicates that the acceleration represents the compounding effects of external forcing and internal climate variability.

Publisher

Research Square Platform LLC

Reference72 articles.

1. Hinkel, J., Lincke, D., Vafeidis, A. T., Perrette, M., Nicholls, R. J., Tol, R. S., … Levermann, A. (2014). Coastal flood damage and adaptation costs under 21st century sea-level rise. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 111(9), 3292–3297.

2. Oppenheimer, M., Glavovic, B., Hinkel, J., van de Wal, R., Magnan, A. K., Abd-Elgawad, A., … Sebesvari, Z. (2019). Sea level rise and implications for low lying islands, coasts and communities.

3. Sea-level rise from the late 19th to the early 21st century;Church JA;Surveys in geophysics,2011

4. Probabilistic reanalysis of twentieth-century sea-level rise;Hay CC;Nature,2015

5. Dangendorf, S., Marcos, M., Wöppelmann, G., Conrad, C. P., Frederikse, T., & Riva, R. (2017). Reassessment of 20th century global mean sea level rise. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 114(23), 5946–5951.