Predictions based on different climate change scenarios: The habitat of typical locust species is shrinking in Xinjiang, China, and Kazakhstan

Abstract

Abstract Climate change, especially climate extremes, can increase the uncertainty of locust outbreaks. The Italian locust(Calliptamus italicus L.), Asian Migratory locust (Locusta migratoria migratoria L.), and Siberian locust(Gomphocerus sibiricus) are common pests widely distributed in the semidesert grasslands of Central Asia and its surrounding regions.Predicting locust geographic distribution changes and future habitats accounting for climate warming is essential to effectively prevent large and sudden locust outbreaks. The MaxEnt model was used in this study to identify environmental factors that impact the distribution of the three typical locust species and to display the probable appropriate regions and uncertainty of typical locust species habitats under different current and future climatic scenarios. Our results showed that soil surface sand content, slope, mean precipitation during the hottest season, and precipitation seasonality were the key environmental variables affecting locust distribution in the region. The three locust species are mainly distributed in the upstream region of the Irtysh River, the Alatao Mountain region, the northern slopes of the Tianshan Mountains, around Sayram Lake, the eastern part of the Alakol Lake region, the Tekes River region, the western part of Ulungur Lake, the Ili River, the upstream region of the Tarim River. According to several climate projections, the area of potential habitat for the three most common locust species will decrease by 3.9 x 104 − 4.6 x 104 km2 by the 2030s and by 6.4 x 104 − 10.6 x 104 km2 by the 2050s. Although the suitable area is shrinking, the climate is becoming more extreme, and the high suitability area is expanding, so the risk of infestation should be taken seriously. This study on locust habitat change under climate change provides a scientific basis for the scientific prevention and control of locust disasters and the sustainable development of the grassland environment in China and Kazakhstan in the context of global warming and intergovernmental cooperation measures.