Development of a Universal Landslide Hazard Potential Model for Mudrocks - Fuzzy Logic and Molecular-level Modeling approaches

Abstract

Abstract The phenomenon of the reduction of shear strength due to moisture-induced swelling and subsequent slaking of the mudrocks is one of the leading causes of landslide hazards in mountainous terrain. In the practice, empirical/semi-empirical approaches adopted for the determination of this hazard are mostly based on macro-level factors. But they do not comprehensively cover the micro-level factors, which contribute to the complex swelling/slaking process. Therefore, a comprehensive fuzzy-logic-based model was developed in this study, which includes both the macro-level landslide contributing factors and the micro-level factors, such as mineralogy, cementation, cation exchange capacity, in situ moisture content, density, and stress state. The model resulted from the molecular simulations of swelling and the subsequent slaking processes using Monte Carlo, molecular mechanics, and molecular dynamics. The results of the micro-level model are incorporated into the fuzzy-logic model to create a universal landslide hazard potential model for the slopes composed of mudrocks. The micro-level behaviour is incorporated in the coupled model via the cohesive energy density parameter for the mudrocks. The final coupled model was verified through the accurate prediction of the landslides and also by comparing the predicted terminal water content with the water content of the mudrock samples collected from the triggered landslides.