Identifying hotspots of endangered wetland bird in the Marsh Al-Dalmaj / Iraq

Abstract

Abstract The escalating human population, urbanization, anthropogenic activities, overhunting of wetland birds, and habitat fragmentation present persistent challenges to the delicate ecosystem. However, Marsh Dalmaj stands as a vital sanctuary for migrating birds, harboring remarkable biodiversity that underscores the need to prioritize the conservation of wetland avifauna. The study spanned from September 2020 to August 2022. Our methodology encompassed several techniques: (KDE) was employed to delineate suitable and non-suitable habitats, Hotspot Modeling determined the fidelity of suitable habitats, the LST and NDVI algorithms were utilized to monitor climate change, the point count protocol (PCP) enabled precise recording of wetland bird species, and the Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) was employed to predict future scenarios over a span of 50 years. In 2021, the average LST in suitable habitats was 42.37°C, accompanied by an NDVI value of 0.33. In contrast, non-suitable habitats exhibited an average LST of 45.5°C and an NDVI of -0.13. Additionally, the Area of Occupancy (AOO) encompassed 50.83 km² of suitable habitat and 93.21 km² of non-suitable habitat, while the Extent of Occurrence (EOO) covered 144.04 km². These findings suggest that the EOO and AOO of wetland birds are nearing endangered status according to the criteria set by the (IUCN). Furthermore, the analysis identified 14 hotspots within the AOO, with confidence levels ranging from 90–99%, signifying areas of significant ecological importance. We conclude from our study that highlights the key pathways of a 50-year scenario, demonstrating the negative impact of continuous climate change, specifically LST, on marsh bird populations and NDVI. Consequently, it is crucial for the Iraq Environmental Ministry (IEM) to play an active and influential role in shaping environmental policies and promoting sustainable management approaches, particularly in conserving the biodiversity of the Marsh Al-Dalmaj region