Evidence from Temperature Analog for Traditional and Economic Cities in Nigeria: Implications for Sustainable City-Related Actions

Abstract

Abstract Responding to the threats of climate change by cities requires taking relevant actions that will communicate the future conditions in a relatable and effective manner for sustainable and transformational climate actions. We used the analog approach to assess the geographical shifts and changes in average temperature conditions for six traditional and economic cities under different climate scenarios (Mitigated and Unmitigated scenarios). We calculated the similarity in temperature between each pixel for the current (2021-2050) and future (2041-2070) conditions of the cities, with every pixel globally in the historical (1971-200) period. Our analysis revealed that; (1) the temperature of the cities in the current and future periods will be similar to conditions of another place on the globe during the historical period; (2) Kano City will experience even more drastic changes because of the low level of similarity; (3) the new places found with the similar temperature conditions are generally to the south of the corresponding cities thus indicating warming. We highlighted the benefits of sustainable lessons that can be drawn from the interactions between the cities and their analogs through informed decisions to meet the demand for local adaptation and adopt comprehensive suites of integrated solutions to facilitate efforts on response strategies.