Predicting the potentially exacerbation of severe viral pneumonia by MuLBSTA score joint CD4+ and CD8+ cell counts: construction and verification of risk warning model

Abstract

Abstract Purpose This study mainly focuses on the immune function and introduces CD4+, CD8+ and their ratios based on the MuLBSTA score, a previous viral pneumonia mortality risk warning model, to construct an early warning model of severe viral pneumonia risk. Methods A retrospective single-center observational study was operated from January 2021 to December 2022 at the People's Hospital of Liangjiang New Area, Chongqing, China. A total of 138 patients who met the criteria for viral pneumonia were selected and their data, including demographic data, comorbidities, laboratory results, CT scans, immunologic and pathogenic tests, treatment regimens, and clinical outcomes, were collected and statistically analyzed. Results 41 patients (29.7%) developed severe or critical illness. A viral pneumonia severe risk warning model was successfully constructed, including eight parameters: age, bacterial coinfection, CD4+, CD4+/CD8+, multiple lung lobe infiltrations, smoking, hypertension, and hospitalization time. The risk score for severe illness in patients was set at 600 points. The model had good predictive performance (AUROC = 0.94397), better than the original MuLBSTA score (AUROC = 0.8241). Conclusion A warning system constructed based on immune function has a good warning effect on the risk of severe conversion in patients with viral pneumonia.