Impact of Climate Variability and Environmental Policies on Vegetation Dynamics in the Semi-Arid Tigray

Author:

Tefera Amare Sisay1,Siyum Zenebe Girmay2,Berhe Daniel Hagos1,Gebru Belay Manjur3

Affiliation:

1. Adigrat University

2. Mekelle University

3. Tigray Institute of Policy Studies

Abstract

Abstract Anthropogenic and climate-related phenomena are among the main factors responsible for variations in vegetation structure and composition worldwide. However, studies that integrate the effects of human activities and climate variability are still lacking in the fragile tropical ecosystems, including the semi-arid Tigray region. This study examined the relationship between vegetation cover, climate variability, and environmental policies in the semi-arid Tigray region of Ethiopia. Using satellite-based vegetation index and high-resolution rainfall data, the study found that human factors, particularly environmental policy implementations, played a more significant role in changing vegetation cover than climate variables. With r2 = 0.19, the regression analysis showed an insignificant causal relationship between vegetation dynamics and precipitation over the 41-year study period. However, the residual analysis result (r = -0.55, z-stat = -11.58, p < 0.01) indicated a strong relationship between vegetation change and environmental policies implemented within the specified study period. The research also highlighted the negative impact of the global rise in temperature on vegetation cover due to water stress caused by evapotranspiration. These findings suggest the need for future research to focus on assessing variations in correlation among different vegetation formations and policy changes in detail.

Publisher

Research Square Platform LLC

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