MIC-GDM Coupled Quantification Model: A New Data-Driven Approach to CBM Reservoir Potential Evaluation

Abstract

Abstract In coalbed methane (CBM) development, it is imperative to evaluate the reservoir’s potential and identify the favorable areas to achieve higher production. This paper presents a novel quantified model inspired by the reservoir hydrodynamic heterogeneity. Treating the groundwater hydrodynamic zones as the computation units, the Maximal Information Coefficient (MIC) and the Geodetector Model (GDM) are applied to quantify the correlation and the degree of impact of the reservoir parameter on the average daily gas production, respectively. Afterward, an evaluation index system is established and its weight vector is obtained from a Game Theory (GT) model which couples the MIC scores with the GDM q-values. Taking the Gujiao mining area in the northern Qinshui Basin as an example, the reservoir potential classification of the proposed model demonstrates reliability compared to the prior studies and provides a deep insight into the relationship between CBM production and the reservoir heterogeneity. The reservoir spatial heterogeneity, i.e. the differences in hydrodynamics, lead to variations in the ranking of the primary impact factors and result in the uneven production. The model proposed in this study eliminates the subjective influence and can be applied to quantitatively evaluate geoscience issues that are impacted by spatial distribution heterogeneity.