Estimation of the Global Number of Nicotine Vapers in 2020

Abstract

Abstract BackgroundThe combustion of tobacco is the main cause of tobacco-related morbidity and mortality. Nicotine vaping products (NVP) are potentially disruptive innovations with considerable potential for population health. A key question is whether NVP are replacing tobacco cigarettes, which requires mapping uptake of NVP. Collecting information on nicotine use is difficult for many countries due to cost. The objective of this study was to derive a global estimate of vaping.MethodsSince 2018 we have collected information on the prevalence of NVP use. To estimate the prevalence of vaping in countries lacking information, we used the method of assumed similarity between countries in the same region and economic condition. Based on surveys, we calculated the average prevalence of vaping for each WHO region, World Bank income classification group and legal status of NVP. For each of these groups the average prevalence of vaping was calculated. These values were used as substitutes for the prevalence figures in the countries with absent data. The number of vapers was calculated by taking as the denominator the adult population. ResultsSurvey data on NVP users were available for 49 countries covering 2.8b of the adult population in 2018 and unavailable for 2.9b. Information on vaping was lacking for half of the world's population. We estimated a total of 58.1m vapers worldwide in 2018. By reference to market growth the data were adjusted to arrive at estimates for 2020. Results was fitted to revenue data at the 2018. For the year 2020, the projection is 68m vapers globally.ConclusionsMany global epidemiological studies use the method of assumed similarity between countries with shared characteristics in order to estimate missing data. The methodological limitations are likely to overestimate the global number of vapers. Our estimate of 68m nicotine vapers indicates considerable uptake given that NVP products have been available on most markets for only a decade, that there is either no support or opposition to vaping in many countries, and that countries which regulate NVP have controls over advertising and promotion. However, given the global scale of tobacco smoking at 1.1 billion, progress in adoption of alternative products is slow. Those using NVP are still a small fraction of those who smoke.