Impact of climate change on the distribution and habitat suitability of the world’s main commercial squids

Abstract

Abstract Climate change is expected to produce major effects across marine life, and cephalopods seem to benefit from these effects. Of these animals, squids exhibit the greatest levels of biomass and of a substantial importance for human consumption. To test the hypothesis that effects of climate change are beneficial for commercial squid, we used species distribution models on climate scenarios for the period between 2000 and 2014, as well as the years 2050 and 2100 (RCP [representative concentration pathway] 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5; CMIP5). Our results suggest that consequences of climate change scenarios are species specific. In the North Pacific and Northwest Atlantic, habitat suitability may increase (from + 0.83% [Doryteuthis pealeii] to + 8.77% increase [Illex illecebrosus]), while the habitat of other species is predicted to decrease (from − 1.03% [Doryteuthis opalescens] to -15.04% decrease [Loligo reynaudii]). Increases in habitat suitability occurred mostly at higher latitudes, while suitable habitat decrease was predicted for the tropical regions. Stronger changes were attained with the harsher emission scenarios. In the future, as a result of warming of the Arctic, squid habitat may increase along both coasts of North America. In the Southern Hemisphere, squids may lose habitat with no poleward habitat alternatives to move into. Contrary to our hypothesis, commercial squid do not stand to benefit from climate change. Since these squid are an important food source for marine megafauna and humans, it is imperative that climate change biogeographic impacts are considered for a sustainable management of this important group of molluscs.