Analysis of food system drivers of deforestation highlights foreign investments and urbanization as threats to tropical forests

Abstract

Abstract According to the latest Global Forest Resources Assessment, approximately 90% of global forest cover changes between 2000 and 2018 was attributable to agricultural expansion, positioning food production as the greatest direct driver of deforestation. Our understanding of direct and underlying drivers of deforestation has generally been informed by land systems studies focusing on how interactions between human and environmental systems influence land use change. Yet, despite the prominent role of agricultural expansion for food production in driving deforestation, limited research has explored deforestation through the lens of the food system. Consequentially, little is known about which dimensions of the food system are most influential in driving emissions from deforestation, which in turn impedes the development of effective strategies and policies to reduce food system emissions while achieving zero hunger. Therefore, this study takes a food system approach to analyzing drivers of deforestation at global and continental scales to determine how drivers related to the three dimensions of the food system – (1) consumption/demand, (2) production/supply and (3) trade/distribution – influenced forest cover changes in 40 tropical countries from 2004 to 2021. Results of Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) models suggest that trade- and demand-side dynamics, namely foreign direct investments and urban population growth, are playing important roles in influencing deforestation trends at the global, Asia and Latin America scales, suggesting that food system-based interventions could be effective in reducing deforestation in these regions. The model for Africa yielded a weaker explanatory power, suggesting factors beyond the food system might have a more substantial impact on deforestation in the region. The proposed framework provides critical insights into where interventions within the food system are needed to reduce deforestation and how such interventions could contribute synergistically to the achievement of coupled sustainable goals, such as climate action, life on land and zero hunger.