Feasibility of CO2 Pipeline Construction to Enable Gigaton-Scale Carbon Dioxide Removals: Evidence from historical precedent

Abstract

We assess the feasibility of a rapid CO2 pipeline buildout using historical evidence from oil and gas pipelines. We answer four questions: 1) What length of pipeline network will be required to achieve the benchmarks of 1 GT or 100 Mt of CO₂ in 2050? 2) What have been the fastest national oil and gas pipeline buildouts achieved in a 25-year period ? 3) Are the pipeline requirements for gigaton-scale CO₂ removals feasible given these historical precedents, and 4) Under what political, economic, and social circumstances have rapid pipeline buildouts occurred? Modelling studies projecting 100 Mt of CO₂ transportation and sequestration capacity by 2050 suggest rates of pipeline construction that are precedented in 18 national 25 year build-outs during the twentieth and twenty-fist centuries. For 1 Gt, only two 25-year national pipeline build-outs (both in the USA) achieve the rate of pipeline construction that the modelling studies suggest would be required, only three 25-year periods of global pipeline construction meet the benchmark. Rapid construction of fossil fuel pipelines has benefited from strong economic and institutional drivers, which may not apply to CO₂ pipelines in the same way. Our findings are reason for caution about the likelihood of CO₂ pipeline buildouts keeping pace with CO₂ removal targets.