Combining pedological information with bioclimatic scenarios for evaluating the effect of climate change on the modelled distribution of forest species: case of study Apuleia leiocarpa

Abstract

Abstract Sustainable wood production is one of the current challenges due to the increasing demand for wood worldwide. Despite, forest planting has proved to be a good solution; the high wood productivity can be achieved only under favorable bioclimatic conditions, which makes this study of great value for government policies. This study aimed to assess the impact of climate on the distribution of Apuleia leiocarpa in Rio de Janeiro and Minas Gerais, Brazil. The Species Distribution Models (SDMs) were performed using the MaxEnt model-based on-field survey of A. leiocarpa (n = 54). Pedological and bioclimatic data were used to identify suitable areas and climate change effects on the distribution of this species. Ours results have shown that the MaxEnt presented a good performance in modelling the distribution of the A. leiocarpa. The temperature was the main controlling variable of the distribution of this species. The pedological models overestimated of the suitable area. Despite that, the results provide useful information to be considered in the future in order to refine the selection of variables for a better characterization of the ecological niche. Regarding the projection of the future A. leiocarpa distribution, there was found an alarming scenario, which it must be taken into the consideration for the local authorities in order to establish a successful species-replanting program.