Spatial Heterogeneity in Climate Change: Evidence from Brazilian Biomes

Author:

Rodarte Adriano Braga1,Laurini Márcio Poletti1

Affiliation:

1. Universidade de São Paulo

Abstract

Abstract

We present a methodology designed to study the spatial heterogeneity of climate change. Our approach involves decomposing the observed changes in temperature patterns into multiple trend, cycle, and seasonal components within spatio-temporal models. We apply this method to test the hypothesis of a global long-term temperature trend against multiple trends in distinct biomes. Applying this methodology, we delve into the examination of heterogeneity of climate change in Brazil — a country characterized by a spectrum of climate zones. The findings challenge the notion of a global trend, revealing the presence of distinct trends in warming effects, and more accelerated trends for the Amazon and Cerrado biomes, indicating a composition between global warming and deforestation in determining changes in permanent temperature patterns.

Publisher

Springer Science and Business Media LLC

Reference89 articles.

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2. Shivanna, K.R. (2022) Climate change and its impact on biodiversity and human welfare. Proceedings of the Indian National Science Academy 88: 160--171 https://doi.org/10.1007/s43538-022-00073-6

3. Sarah R. Weiskopf and Madeleine A. Rubenstein and Lisa G. Crozier and Sarah Gaichas and Roger Griffis and Jessica E. Halofsky and Kimberly J.W. Hyde and Toni Lyn Morelli and Jeffrey T. Morisette and Roldan C. Mu ñoz and Andrew J. Pershing and David L. Peterson and Rajendra Poudel and Michelle D. Staudinger and Ariana E. Sutton-Grier and Laura Thompson and James Vose and Jake F. Weltzin and Kyle Powys Whyte (2020) Climate change effects on biodiversity, ecosystems, ecosystem services, and natural resource management in the United States. Science of The Total Environment 733: 137782 https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.137782, Climate change is a pervasive and growing global threat to biodiversity and ecosystems. Here, we present the most up-to-date assessment of climate change impacts on biodiversity, ecosystems, and ecosystem services in the U.S. and implications for natural resource management. We draw from the 4th National Climate Assessment to summarize observed and projected changes to ecosystems and biodiversity, explore linkages to important ecosystem services, and discuss associated challenges and opportunities for natural resource management. We find that species are responding to climate change through changes in morphology and behavior, phenology, and geographic range shifts, and these changes are mediated by plastic and evolutionary responses. Responses by species and populations, combined with direct effects of climate change on ecosystems (including more extreme events), are resulting in widespread changes in productivity, species interactions, vulnerability to biological invasions, and other emergent properties. Collectively, these impacts alter the benefits and services that natural ecosystems can provide to society. Although not all impacts are negative, even positive changes can require costly societal adjustments. Natural resource managers need proactive, flexible adaptation strategies that consider historical and future outlooks to minimize costs over the long term. Many organizations are beginning to explore these approaches, but implementation is not yet prevalent or systematic across the nation., Global change, Biodiversity, Ecosystems, Ecosystem services, Natural resource management, https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0048969720312948, 0048-9697

4. Rhea J Rocque and Caroline Beaudoin and Ruth Ndjaboue and Laura Cameron and Louann Poirier-Bergeron and Rose-Alice Poulin-Rheault and Catherine Fallon and Andrea C Tricco and Holly O Witteman (2021) Health effects of climate change: an overview of systematic reviews. BMJ Open 11(6) https://doi.org/10.1136/bmjopen-2020-046333, https://bmjopen.bmj.com/content/11/6/e046333.full.pdf, https://bmjopen.bmj.com/content/11/6/e046333, 2044-6055, Objectives We aimed to develop a systematic synthesis of systematic reviews of health impacts of climate change, by synthesising studies{\textquoteright} characteristics, climate impacts, health outcomes and key findings.Design We conducted an overview of systematic reviews of health impacts of climate change. We registered our review in PROSPERO (CRD42019145972). No ethical approval was required since we used secondary data. Additional data are not available.Data sources On 22 June 2019, we searched Medline, Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature (CINAHL), Embase, Cochrane and Web of Science.Eligibility criteria We included systematic reviews that explored at least one health impact of climate change.Data extraction and synthesis We organised systematic reviews according to their key characteristics, including geographical regions, year of publication and authors{\textquoteright} affiliations. We mapped the climate effects and health outcomes being studied and synthesised major findings. We used a modified version of A MeaSurement Tool to Assess systematic Reviews-2 (AMSTAR-2) to assess the quality of studies.Results We included 94 systematic reviews. Most were published after 2015 and approximately one-fifth contained meta-analyses. Reviews synthesised evidence about five categories of climate impacts; the two most common were meteorological and extreme weather events. Reviews covered 10 health outcome categories; the 3 most common were (1) infectious diseases, (2) mortality and (3) respiratory, cardiovascular or neurological outcomes. Most reviews suggested a deleterious impact of climate change on multiple adverse health outcomes, although the majority also called for more research.Conclusions Most systematic reviews suggest that climate change is associated with worse human health. This study provides a comprehensive higher order summary of research on health impacts of climate change. Study limitations include possible missed relevant reviews, no meta-meta-analyses, and no assessment of overlap. Future research could explore the potential explanations between these associations to propose adaptation and mitigation strategies and could include broader sociopsychological health impacts of climate change.Data sharing not applicable as no datasets generated and/or analysed for this study. All data relevant to the study are included in the article or uploaded as supplementary information. Additional data are not available., British Medical Journal Publishing Group, e046333

5. Saladin, Benjamin and Pellissier, Lo ïc and Graham, Catherine H. and others (2020) Rapid climate change results in long-lasting spatial homogenization of phylogenetic diversity. Nature Communications 11: 4663 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-18343-6

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