The carbon emissions calculation, decomposition and peak scenario simulation of meat, egg, and milk in China: from a production and consumption perspective

Abstract

Abstract Characterizing and quantifying livestock carbon emissions helps mitigate temperature rise and potential climate risks. Here, the spatial and temporal characteristics of China’s carbon emissions of meat, egg, and milk are analyzed from the perspective of production and consumption. A driving factor decomposition model of carbon emissions of meat, egg, and milk production and consumption is established using the logarithmic mean Divisia index (LMDI). Using a static scenario analysis and dynamic Monte Carlo simulations (MCS), the evolution trajectory of carbon peak in meat, egg, and milk production and consumption in China during 2021–2030 is analyzed. China’s carbon emissions from meat, egg, and milk production and consumption have risen in 2020, reaching 794.1 and 465.88 Mt, respectively. Moreover, western China has the highest carbon emissions in production (33.84%). For consumption, the carbon emissions are mainly concentrated in the eastern region (42.96%). The key drivers of carbon emissions for this production and consumption are the farmland value and residential income effects, respectively. Conversely, reverse urbanization, agricultural industry structure, and food money purchasing power effects play significant suppressive roles. Under the business-as-usual scenario (BAU), China’s carbon emissions from meat, egg, and milk production and consumption in 2030 will increase by 40.1% and 4.86% from 2020, respectively. The middle low-carbon scenario (Mid-LC) mitigates carbon emission growth by 24.51% and − 5.7%, respectively, for the production and consumption of meat, egg, and milk in 2030 compared to 2020. In the highly low-carbon scenario (Hig-LC), production and consumption will achieve a carbon peak by 2030. Ultimately, this study highlights the importance of reducing carbon emissions from livestock on production and consumption, providing a new perspective for green development in China and other emerging economies.