Spatio-temporal Changes in Hurricane Risk Assessment in the Yucatán Peninsula, Mexico

Abstract

Abstract Tropical cyclones are considered one of the most dangerous natural hazards. A wide variety of hazards are associated with these natural phenomena, such as strong winds, extreme precipitation, storm surge, flooding, and landslides. In Mexico, tropical cyclones are the most frequent natural threats and have a high cost for the affected populations. This research aims to characterise the temporal change in the risk of hurricanes in the Yucatán Peninsula by analysing its three components (danger, vulnerability, and exposure) for three periods (1945–2000, until 2010, and until 2020). Danger was estimated by calculating the probabilities of occurrence of winds related to hurricane categories using a hexagonal grid from IBTrACS for the period 1945–2021 and NCEI wind fields since 2008. Vulnerability was approximated from the construction of indicators with sociodemographic data from the 2020 National Population and Housing Census issued by Mexico’s National Institute of Statistics and Geography. With these indicators, a factor analysis was carried out and a weighted index was constructed. Finally, exposure was determined from population density. Each of these indices was aggregated at the hexagonal level, allowing the computation of the risk associated with hurricanes. The results show high-risk levels for high danger levels, e.g., axis., on coastal areas such as the Riviera Maya. Likewise, high risk levels are related to marginalisation, i.e., vulnerability, in the north-eastern zone of the Yucatán Peninsula. The increase in the frequency of tropical cyclones combined with high population densities leads to higher risk levels of tropical cyclones.