Scaling up Gas and Electric Cooking in Low- and Middle-Income Countries: Climate Threat or Mitigation Strategy with co-Benefits?

Abstract

Abstract Nearly 3 billion people in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) rely on polluting fuels, resulting in millions of avoidable deaths each year. Polluting fuels also emit short-lived climate forcers and greenhouse gases (GHGs). Liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) and grid-based electricity are scalable alternatives to polluting fuels but have raised climate and health concerns. Here, we compare emissions and climate impacts of a business-as usual household cooking fuel trajectory to four large-scale transitions to gas and/or grid electricity in 77 LMICs. We use upstream and end-use emissions in a reduced-complexity emissions-based climate model to estimate radiative forcing and temperature changes associated with each scenario. We find full transitions to LPG and/or electricity decrease emissions from both well-mixed GHG and short-lived climate forcers, resulting in a roughly 5 mK global temperature reduction by 2040. Transitions to LPG and/or electricity also reduce annual emissions of PM2.5 by over 6 Mt (99%) by 2040, which would substantial lower health risks.