Risk and prognostic nomograms for colorectal adenocarcinoma with liver metastasis: a population-based study

Abstract

Abstract Purpose: The purpose of this research was to investigate the prevalence, risk, and prognostic factors associated with liver metastasis (LM) in colorectal adenocarcinoma and to develop a nomogram for predicting LM incidence and prognosis.Methods: The Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database was used to collect data from patients diagnosed with colorectal adenocarcinoma with liver metastases between 2010 and 2015. We used univariate and LASSO-multivariate logistic regression analyses to identify independent risk factors for LM in colorectal adenocarcinoma patients, and we used univariate and LASSO-multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression analyses to identify independent prognostic factors for colorectal adenocarcinoma with LM. We then made two new nomograms, and the results were checked out by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, calibration curves, and decision curves (DCA).Result: There were 38,941 patients with colorectal adenocarcinoma included in the study, and 4,866 individuals were diagnosed with LM. The age, T, N, tumor size, chemotherapy, radiation, perineural invasion, surgery, and CEA level are all independent risk factors for LM in patients with colorectal adenocarcinoma. The age, grade, tumor size, chemotherapy, T stage, CEA level, marital status, and surgery are all independent prognostic variables for colorectal adenocarcinoma patients with LM. ROC curves, calibration, DCA, and Kaplan–Meier (K-M) survival curves in the training, validation, and expanded testing sets indicated that two nomograms may accurately predict the incidence and prognosis of LM in patients with colorectal adenocarcinoma.Conclusion: LM is quite common in people with colorectal adenocarcinoma. A nomogram based on risk and prognostic indicators for LM was shown to be effective at estimating the probability of LM incidence and prognosis.