Climate warming will affect the range dynamics of East Asian Meehania species: A maximum entropy approach.

Abstract

Abstract Global climate change is among the major anthropogenic factors impacting species distribution, with significant conservation implications. Yet, little is known about the effects of climate warming on the distributional shifts of East Asian species. In the current study, we used the maximum entropy model (MaxEnt) to determine present and possible future habitats for five Meehania species occurring in the East Asian region. Our objectives were to evaluate how climate change would influence the species' habitat under current and future climate scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 and 8.5). The mean area under the curve (AUC) ranged between 0.896 and 0.973, while the TSS values for all species varied between 0.811 and 0.891. The modelled current habitat of the species corresponded with the recorded distribution localities, confirming the model's robustness. Analysis of variable contribution demonstrated that the distribution of the species had differential environmental requirements; however, isothermality, precipitation of driest month, and elevation variables were among the main influential variables. Based on present climatic conditions, the projected habitat suitability maps showed a total of 662,846.0 to 2,039,180.1 km2 as suitable regions for the distribution of Meehania species. In addition, there was a substantial loss in habitat range under future climatic scenarios for all the species. While the East Asian region is rich in biodiversity, more attention should be given to its management conservation. The current findings provide a scientific foundation for the conservation of Meehania and other species' habitats in the region.