Unlocking Growth: A Comprehensive Analysis of Indian Exports through ARDL Methodology and the Catalytic Role of Advanced Technology in Enhancing Exports and GDP.

Abstract

Abstract This study examines the relationship between exports, export instability, foreign currency reserves, and economic growth in India from 2001 to 2021. The Autoregressive Distributed Lag model is used to analyze the data, while Granger causality analysis is utilized to determine the causative relationships among the variables and additionally, explain how new technology will help to boost trade and economic growth. The data used in this study was sourced from reputable academic publications, including the Handbook of Statistics on Indian Economy published by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), the World Integrated Trade Solution (WITS) database, and many editions of the Economic Survey. This study also examines several statistical tests such as Autocorrelation, Heteroskedasticity, and Normality tests. The finding of the study shows the Error Correction Term (ECT) had a statistically significant effect with a p-value of 0.00. The rate of adjustment is at a level of 33 percent. The findings of the Granger Causality test indicate the existence of a bidirectional relationship between exports and GDP, as well as a unidirectional relationship between export instability and economic growth. Export instability has been shown to have a positive impact on economic growth. However, it has been observed that economic growth does not have a causal effect on export instability. Furthermore, there is no association between foreign currency reserves and GDP.