Cross Comparison of Traditional and Innovative Trend Methodologies to Understand Climate Change Process

Author:

Tuncer Gamze1,Sönmez Osman1,Dabanli Ismail2

Affiliation:

1. Sakarya University

2. Istanbul Technical University

Abstract

Abstract

The impacts of climate change have been markedly observed worldwide, particularly since the 1990s. To understand, adapt to, and prepare for the adverse consequences of climate change, it is necessary to analyze hydroclimatic parameters such as precipitation, temperature, and humidity. Assessing the average characteristics of these parameters is essential for future measures and adaptation strategies. Addressing climate change involves two main approaches: analysis of past events and generation of future projections. Trend analysis serves as a method for understanding past records. A comparative examination of well-established and recent innovative methodologies offers new insights into the dynamics of change. For this purpose, the Mann-Kendall test, Innovative Sen (ITA), and Innovative Polygon Method (IPTA) are applied, and their outcomes are compared by evaluating the record period spanning from 1966 to 2022. While the Mann-Kendall trend test generally does not imply a significant trend, the ITA approach provides outputs that should be considered for future flood and drought studies. A decreasing trend in precipitation alongside increasing trends in temperature and humidity are observed throughout the studied basin. The ITA method detected both increasing and decreasing trends in almost all of the data whereas no trend was observed according to the Mann-Kendall test. Moreover, the IPTA method provides a more detailed analysis of the time series. Consequently, it is inferred that the IPTA and ITA approaches exhibit greater sensitivity compared to the Mann-Kendall test in detecting trends.

Publisher

Springer Science and Business Media LLC

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