Riverine fish species diversity in a biodiversity hotspot region under climate change impacts: distribution shifts and conservation needs

Author:

Makki Toktam1,Mostafavi Hossein1,Matkan Ali Akbar2,Valavi Roozbeh3,Hughes Robert M4,Shadloo Shabnam5,Aghighi Hossein2,Abdoli Asghar1,Teimori Azad6,Eagderi Soheil7,Coad Brian W8

Affiliation:

1. Environmental Sciences Research Institute, Shahid Beheshti University

2. Shahid Beheshti University

3. University of Melbourne

4. Amnis Opes Institute

5. Iranian Cheetah Society

6. Shahid Bahonar University of Kerman

7. University of Tehran

8. Canadian Museum of Nature

Abstract

Abstract The future changes in the spatial distribution and richness of 131 riverine fish species were investigated at 1481 sites in Iran under optimistic and pessimistic climate change scenarios of 2050 and 2080. The maximum entropy model was used to predict species’ potential distribution under current and future climate conditions. The hydrologic unit (HU) occupancy of the target species through the use of nine environmental variables was modeled. The most important variable determining fish occupancy was HU location, followed by elevation, climate variables, and slope. Thirty-seven species decrease potential habitat occupancy in all future scenarios. The southern Caspian HU faces the highest future species reductions. The southern Caspian HU, western Zagros, and northwestern Iran will be at higher risk for species richness reduction. Managers could use these results to plan conservational strategies to ease the movement and dispersal of species, especially those that are at risk of extinction or invasion.

Publisher

Research Square Platform LLC

Reference71 articles.

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3. Leadley, P. Biodiversity scenarios: projections of 21st century change in biodiversity, and associated ecosystem services: a technical report for the global biodiversity outlook 3. (UNEP/Earthprint, 2010).

4. Abdoli, A. & Naderi, M. Biodiversity of fishes of the southern basin of the Caspian Sea. Preprint at (2009).

5. Biodiversity hotspots and conservation gaps in Iran;Farashi A;J. Nat. Conserv.,2017

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