Affiliation:
1. Universidade de São Paulo
Abstract
Abstract
Integrated modeling systems are used to identify the effects of climate variability on future sediment production, assisting in watershed management. In this study, an integrated modeling system composed of erosion and climatological models was used to evaluate the effects of climate variability on sediment production in the Itaqueri river basin, state of São Paulo (Brazil). For this, we used climate data generated by the ETA-MIROC5 and ETA-HadGEM2-ES models for future estimation of sediment production using the Erosion Potential Method (EPM) model under RCPs 4.5 and 8.5. The Itaqueri river basin presented an average annual production of sediments equivalent to 9.41 Mg. ha-¹. year-¹, which considering the total area of the basin is equivalent to 208,467 Mg. year-¹. Considering the sediment retention rate, the actual sediment loss in the current scenario (2019) was 22,306 Mg. year-¹. Regarding the effects of the variability of climatic elements, in the medium term (2070) the average annual production of sediments in the basin may increase by up to 61.8% (RCP 4.5) and 30.5% (RCP 8.5). In this same period, the actual loss of sediments could reach 36,076 Mg. year-¹ and contribute to the silting and reduction of the useful life of the Lobo reservoir. The EPM model proved to be effective in identifying areas with the highest production of sediments and, in an integrated manner with climate models, it can help in a preliminary and preventive way in identifying the effects of climate variability. However, uncertainties related to the adoption of climate elements are regularly included as part of the risk in water resources management.
Publisher
Research Square Platform LLC
Reference96 articles.
1. Projected climate change impacts in rainfall erosivity over Brazil. Nature;Almagro A,2017
2. Alvares, C. A.; Stape, J. L.; Sentelhas, P. C.; de Moraes Gonçalves, J. L.; Sparovek, G. Köppen’s (2013). Climate classification map for Brazil. Meteorologische Zeitschrift, v. 22, p. 711–728. DOI: 10.1127/0941-2948/2013/0507.
3. Argenton, E. C. (2004). Limnologia, balneabilidade e impactos ambientais: uma análise temporal e espacial da represa do Lobo (Broa), Itirapina/Brotas – SP. 146p. Dissertação (Mestrado em Ciências da Engenharia Ambiental) – Escola de Engenharia de São Carlos, Universidade de São Paulo, São Carlos.
4. Arroio Junior, P. P. (2013). Avaliação da produção e transporte de sedimentos na bacia hidrográfica do Rio Itaqueri, municípios de Itirapina e Brotas – SP. Dissertação (mestrado) – Programa de Pós-Graduação em Ciências da Engenharia Ambiental. Universidade de São Paulo.
5. Predicting hydrological response to climate change in the White Volta catchment, West Africa;Awotwi A;Journal of Earth Science & Climatic Change,2015