Half of the unprecedented global soybean production failure in 2012 is attributable to climate change.

Abstract

Abstract In 2012, soybean crops failed in the three largest producing regions due to spatially compound hot and dry weather across North and South America. Here, we present different impact storylines of the 2012 event by imposing the same seasonally evolving atmospheric circulation in a pre-industrial, present day (+1°C above pre-industrial), and future (+2°C above pre-industrial) climate. While the drought intensity is rather similar under different warming levels, our results show that anthropogenic warming strongly amplifies the impacts of such a large-scale circulation pattern on global soybean production, driven not only by warmer temperatures, but also by stronger heat-moisture interactions. We estimate that 51% (47-55%) of the global soybean production deficit in 2012 is attributable to climate change. Future warming (+2°C above pre-industrial) would further exacerbate production deficits by 58% (46-67%), compared to present-day 2012 conditions. This highlights the increasing intensity of global soybean production shocks with warming requiring urgent adaptation strategies.