Analysis of Land Use/land Cover Changes and Prediction of Future Changes With Land Change Modeler: Case of Belek, Turkey

Abstract

Abstract In the areas declared to be a tourism center, a rapid tourism-related development occurs depending on the investments in tourism, which causes a dramatic land use and land cover changes. Determining, monitoring, and modeling of land use and land cover changes are required in order to ensure the conservation-use balance and sustainability within such vulnerable areas that are under the development pressure. This study consists of four steps. In the first step, the Landsat images dated 1985, 2000, and 2021 were classified using the maximum likelihood method and the land use and land cover of Belek Tourism Center located in Turkey were determined. The second step included the identification of areal and spatial changes between the land use and land cover classes for the periods between 1985 and 2000, 2000 and 2021, and 1985 and 2021. In the third step, the land use and land cover changes in Belek Tourism Center for 2040 were modeled using the Land Change Modeler. Last step evaluated the relationship between the modeled spatial development pattern and the current planning decisions. According to the results obtained through a 36-year research, the rates of settlement, forest, and water body areas have increased by 11.91%, 13.67%, and 0.82%, respectively whereas the rates of barren land and agricultural areas have reduced by 22.25% and 4.15%, respectively. The land use map modeled for 2040 predicts the settlement areas to expand by 5.46% and the agricultural areas to shrink by 4.21% by comparison with 2021.