Mitigating Future Water Scarcity Through Comprehensive Assessment of Climate and Socio-Environmental Impacts in River Basins

Abstract

Abstract This study employs the Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) model to assess the impact of anticipated climate and socio-environmental changes on water scarcity in the Magat River Basin (MRB). The MRB is crucial for agriculture and domestic use but faces vulnerability due to climate change and societal factors. The current understanding of future water deficits in the MRB is limited, necessitating a comprehensive assessment. The research aims to evaluate the effects of socio-environmental changes on water supply and demand. Results show that strategic interventions like high conveyance efficiency and moderate Alternate Wetting and Drying techniques can mitigate unmet water demand caused by population growth and additional water users until 2080. However, climate change and forest loss are projected to exacerbate water scarcity, especially in agricultural regions dependent on water resources. Model simulations demonstrate the WEAP model's reliability in predicting streamflow. These findings underscore the need for targeted interventions and highlight the effects of climate change and forest loss on water resource management. The study recommends implementing high conveyance efficiency and moderate Alternate Wetting and Drying techniques to alleviate water scarcity and promote resilience, advancing integrated water resources planning and policy analysis.