The spatiotemporal changes of urban thermal environment influenced by landscape patterns—based on panel data models

Abstract

Abstract Context With the development of urbanization, the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of the urban landscape pattern play a decisive role in the intensity of the urban heat island (UHI) effect. Objectives Most of the current dynamic studies utilizing single cross-section data are labor-intensive and lack continuity. Methods A panel data model was constructed to study the relationship between the UHI effect and landscape pattern in Kunming City from four perspectives from 1995 to 2020. Results With the passage of time, the UHI is becoming more and more obvious in Kunming. The variables affecting the surface radiation temperature are different at different scales, and the variables affected by increasing scales are increasing. An ordinary least squares (OLS) model was constructed to verify the reliability of the panel data model results. The normalized water body index (NDWI) has the greatest influence on the surface thermal radiance, and the cooling effect is more obvious with the increase in scale. Unlike previous studies, the spatial configuration of the landscape in Kunming City had a stronger effect on the UHI effect than the landscape grouping and vegetation index. Conclusion In this paper, the panel data model is introduced into the discussion of UHIs for the first time. It is also found that the construction of relatively shaped and concentrated green space and the breaking up of the aggregation degree of building land patches are the best ways to improve the UHI.