Risk of Glacier Collapse in the Southeast Tibetan Basin

Abstract

Abstract Glacier collapse is one of the serious cryospheric hazards in the Tibetan Plateau (TP), especially in the southeast of TP. Recent studies on glacier change and glacier collapse events in this region show that the risk of glacier collapse disaster in Southeast Tibet is vague and not specific. Here, we assess the risk of glacier collapse by combining machine learning method, dangerous glacier identification and vulnerability analysis in the basin. This study considers that the glacier collapse events in this area in recent years are mainly driven by temperature, precipitation and seismic activity under the background of steep terrain. A total of 946 km2 of glaciers in southeastern Tibet are potentially at hazard of collapse, with the largest area of about 320 km2 in the southeastern region; The proportion of the southern region is the highest, about 55.6%. Eight basins are at extremely high risk, including 85 residential areas, 131 roads and 52 rivers. This study directly responds to the needs of the disaster prevention and mitigation strategy to determine the key areas, and emphasizes the necessity of coping with the threat of glacier collapse in the extremely high-risk basins in Southeast Tibet.