What Type of Vehicles Do Households Own? A Joint Model for Vehicle Body, Vintage, Fuel, and Technology Types

Abstract

Abstract Households’ vehicle fleet composition has important policy implications in the area of transport-related energy consumption and emissions. With the recent development in different alternative fuel vehicles (AFVs) such as hybrid and electric vehicles and advanced technology features in the vehicle, the choice dimensions during vehicle purchase are not just limited to vehicle body and age. Households may also consider fuel and technology types. Therefore, this study focuses to investigate households’ vehicle type choices, specifically vehicle body, vintage, fuel, and technology types utilizing a survey conducted in British Columbia, Canada. A joint multinomial probit model has been developed that accommodates error correlations across alternatives among the different choice dimensions. The model results confirm significant correlations among the unobserved components. For instance, a significant positive correlation exists between alternative fuel vehicles and vehicles with advanced technology. The study also investigates the effects of households’ historical experiences such as historical vehicle fleet composition, and exposure to technology in daily life and vehicles. Historically owning AFVs and advanced technology in vehicles are found to have positive effects on the future preference for vehicles with advanced technology. Transit users and bikers show an inclination towards AFVs, which indicates a need for closer monitoring of the early adopters. The findings of the study provide insights towards targeted marketing to equitably promote the ownership of more sustainable, safer, and fuel-efficient vehicles among diverse age and income groups. Furthermore, the results inform land use and transportation policies to influence vehicle type choices for reducing fuel consumption and emissions.